Dry First Half of Week Ahead

We smashed the rain record at Sea-Tac for the month of March. The old record set back in 1950 of 8.40 inches of rain. March of 2014 has now beat that by more than an inch. At 9.44 inches, could we spare a dry day for the last day of the month?

Yes we will, in fact, we look dry Monday; Tuesday, Wednesday, and the first part or Thursday. 

Tonight we feature decreasing showers with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Monday looks Partly Cloudy with temps reaching the mid to upper 50s with a chance of a few spots hitting 60.

Tuesday looks mainly the same, Partly Cloudy with temps in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday looks the exact same as Tuesday, Partly Cloudy, temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday looks to be the day that change happens. We look dry in the AM, with increasing clouds and a chance of showers as the day goes on. Highs will be in the mid 50s.

Friday and Saturday look mainly cloudy, with rain showers likely for the end of the work week and the beginning of the weekend. Highs in the mid 50s.

Sunday looks a bit calmer, as we should dry out and will only see a few showers for the end of the weekend. Temps in the mid 50s once again.

Right now, early next week looks showery with temps in the mid to upper 50s. Not much change. 

The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook shows a pretty good chance of above normal temps, and a slight chance of above normal precipitation. We will see.

Have a good week!

-Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

Rain Set to Return to Western Washington

How would you mix the words June and March?

Junarch?

Marjune?

Anyways, we made it to 70 degrees in spots today, making late March feel like early June. Seattle made it to 66 today, while my area in Snohomish made it to a comfortable 72 with a nice calm breeze. 

Conditions tomorrow will make it seem as if today never happened, as we will see increasing rain during the morning, with highs only reaching the mid 50s with a few upper 50s. With unstable conditions, there is a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow and Wednesday. We could also see a few sunbreaks which could locally raise temperatures.

Continuing on Wednesday, we won't see steady rain, just rain showers with a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm, as mentioned above.

Thursday will deliver showers and sunbreaks with highs reaching the low to mid 50s, depending if you see sun.

Friday morning looks dry, but as we see hours go by, the chance of rain increases during the afternoon. We will see steady, moderate rain, from about noon Friday until early Saturday. Highs Friday and Suturday will be in the mid 50s.

The rest of Saturday will feature a few showers. Sunday looks like showers and sunbreaks with highs in the mid 50s again.

Opening day for the Mariners on Monday looks to be mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Long range models continue to show wet weather, but not heavy steady rain, just showers for now.

Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

Rainy Wednesday; Showers Thursday; Then Drying

Will we get more rain?

Yes.

Will we break the all time record for wettest March?

Most likely.

As of Tuesday Night, SeaTac Airport has received 7.69 inches of rain, the all time record is 8.40 inches. It looks like me may reach that record in the next week.

Wednesday, we should see some rain, not heavy rain like we saw the last few weeks, but breezy conditions, and numerous rain showers,with the highest chance of seeing the most rain will be in the Puget Sound Convergence Zone, mainly near Everett. Convergence Zone areas may also see some Thundershowers in the afternoon as well. High temps ranging from 47-52. Thursday we will see a few light rain showers, with temps cooling into the 40s for almost everyone, with highs ranging from 45-49.

Friday into the weekend, we look to dry out, and warm up, Friday will see clearing skies with high temps possibly getting into the mid 50s. A dirty ridge looks to build in, allowing some clouds and a very slight chance of a sprinkle on Saturday, but it should be mainly dry with temps ranging from 55-58. Sunday looks dry and partly cloudy, with temps possibly reaching the 60s southward and more inland. Monday looks to be the last day of dry and mild weather, as we look to see Partly Cloudy skies and temps possibly reaching the 60s in Seattle. Everywhere, temps look to range from 57-62 on Monday.

Tuesday looks to be the return of rain, with a system reaching the area and dropping light showers over Western Washington, with highs falling back into the mid 50s.

The rest of the week doesn't look too wet, but it looks like we could see a chance of showers everyday through the weekend. (See Outlooks)

Only 13 days until Mariner Baseball!

-Grady, Western WA Weather Blog.

Dry Weather Ahead

Today in Western Washington, we saw sun, and thunder showers. As of about 6:00 PM Monday, a convergence zone is starting to die down at around Tacoma. Which dragged South. It started in the  South Whidbey Island area.

There is still a slight chance of a shower to thunder shower tonight. With lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday should be dry. With highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s, Wednesday in the low 60s, and Thursday back in the upper 50s. Everyday should feature variable clouds, and a chance of AM fog.

At this time Friday looks mainly dry early in the day with an increasing chance of showers later in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 50s

This weekend looks wet again, but not very wet. Saturday looks like AM showers and a chance of PM clearing. Sunday looks like we will have increasing PM rain. Highs during the weekend will also be in the mid to upper 50s, with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Showers Sunday; Mainly Dry Work Week

We have been drenched by rain this week. We may finally reach the end of the very rainy weather after Sunday.

Everywhere in Western Washington saw rain today, besides the well known Olympic Rain Shadow. It blocked rain in the Sequim area. This area is usually dry when everybody else is wet due to the rain shadow.

Sunday should feature some rain around in the very early morning hours, which will switch to showers late in the morning. We may see an isolated thunderstorm as a cold front approaches with the left over showers. Highs should be in the range of 50-57.

Monday will also feature some showers with a chance of a isolated thunderstorm, but we should be mostly dry as showers decrease. Highs will cool off and be in the range of 47-53.

Tuesday is when we start to warm up and dry out, as we should see highs bump up into the upper 50s and low 60s with partly sunny skies.

Wednesday should be a clone of Tuesday, but highs will be warmer. In the range of 57-64. A very nice late winter day.

Thursday and Friday seem to look mainly dry as of now, but there could also be a shower in the mix with highs ranging from 53-60 both days. Next weekend looks wet as of now.

- Grady, Western a Washington Weather Blog

Why I Can't Wait for Next Fall/Winter

So I just got really invested into weather this past year...

I am sooo happy I did.

This past winter was pretty disappointing for snow fans, even though we managed to get 4.0 inches of snow at Sea-Tac this year, it's still below average, and they were both over-running events.

For a kid and weather model run noob like me, this was my first experience of living through the models showing cold a lot during December and January and it not happening. I didn't know they didn't change that much, but I always had a slight feeling they did.

An El-Nino winter is in the forecast for next winter, but something exciting can still happen, the fall and winter of 06-07 was an El-Nino and we got a huge wind storm and a few good snows across the region. 

If you just want to know why I can't wait, skip the story. It shows how I gained knowledge with weather models, and is a lot why I can't wait.



THE STORY

I remember my very first experience like it was yesterday, it was in late November of 2013.

I was already interested in weather a lot at this time, but it was my first time at actually looking at models and actually understand what they showed.

It was the Sunday before Thanksgiving week of November 2013, and as I am just on the internet I decide to check the latest GFS run. (I didn't know what the difference was between models at the time, so then I just said forecast model) The 18Z GFS showed cold air pouring into Washington from the Fraser River Valley at the beginning of December. It had temps in the negatives. (I had enough knowledge at that time to understand that would most likely not happen)

The next day the GFS still showed cold air coming into Western Washington, at this time, the GFS was the only model I knew, and I didn't know it was called the GFS. 

As I was searching Seattle snow stuff up on Google, I find an article from a website I can't remember the name of now, but it brought up something that got me so excited I was about to tell everybody it was going to snow a week from that day.

It said that models showed what looked like models showed in December of 2008, they didn't show much moisture at first, then it started to look better and better as days went on.

The article also said that we could see a December to remember as cold and snow could stay through the first TWO WEEKS of the month, I almost lost it.

We got closer and closer to the week of December 2nd. I was extremely excited for the Saints @ Seahawks MNF game, and the cold supposed to come in on that day.

It was Friday November 30th, I check the weather channels 10 day forecast (Just for a tease) it showed highs that week in the mid to upper 20s, with a chance of snow later in the week. My eyes gazed at the eye candy that day.

As I had to work on a school project later that day, I kept twitter opened up as I awaited tweets that involved this possible snow event. So as I was typing for English, I was hyping for a big snow.

As that Monday (the arrival of the cold air) came closer, I was getting more, and less excited, as models weren't showing as much snow, but they still were.

Finally, my most anticipated day of the year comes. I still remember driving through the rain/snow mix with my dad in the convergence zone to get to the store for snacks for the MNF game.

The game started, my mind finally got taken off weather for the first time in the last week.

This picture below pretty much sums up the game

The Seahawks beat the Saints 34-7 and then had the NFL's best record at 11-1.

As that week was going, my disappointment grew, as models showed less time with the cold, and less moisture as well.

It was very cold though, as this picture from that last Sunday showed the forecast for that next week. That heavy snow on Monday didn't happen.

As we skip 4 days and head into Thursday, the coast gets a decent snow storm, dropping anywhere from 1-4 inches near the coast of Washington. Western Washington was left blank besides a couple of flurries.

As the week went on, snow chances were diminishing, as the cold reaches it's peak that Saturday night, as my brothers car said 9 DEGREES in Snohomish at about 9:00 PM.

It was Sunday night, the end of that very cold, and dry week. Models didn't show much in the way of snow, it showed warming temps and a chance of over running snow.

That over running snow never happened. I never got any snow during that event, just a rain snow mix.

WHAT I LEARNED

I learned so much from this event, almost all of my weather knowledge I have now came from this event, the biggest one being to never trust models past seven days out unless basically every run and model shows that feature.

I now have decent weather knowledge, and don't all myself a "noob" with this stuff anymore, but I know there is A LOT of stuff I don't know yet, and I can't wait to find out what's in store for my weather knowledge.

Why I can't wait for next fall/winter

I can't wait to have the same experience always checking the models every morning, day, and night. No matter what the models show, I will always be looking to see if there is any chance of snow in sight. Even during El-Nino.

It seems once a week in December and January show cold and snow the next week. Which is why I can't wait. Even though it usually never happens, it is still super fun to me to watch those models as the week goes on, every time before I check those models I hope "Please stick to the snow and cold!" I'm usually let down in terms of that, but this past winter, I've trained myself to not be too disappointed when it comes to that.

Special thanks to all my friends from school, family, and the people of twitter. Without @KSeattleweather @ScottSKOMO @MetPatrick22 @BMonahanKIRO7 @MorganPalmer @SamArgier and @cliffmass  

I would be nowhere with my knowledge of weather where I am today.

Thanks everyone!

-Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

A Break In the Rain Tomorrow; Wet Weekend

Western Washington has been drenched by rain this week. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday featured drenching rains across Western Washington, we even passed the average monthly rainfall for the month of March of 3.72 inches, we are now at 3.79 inches for the month at Sea-Tac.

We will finally see a break in the rain Friday, as there is a break between systems in the Pacific. Temperatures Friday may reach the 60s in spots as we see some sun breaks. Temps will range from 52-62.

Saturday we will see a return to the rain as a front comes in from the North West during the late morning/early afternoon hours. We may see a rain shadow in the Port Angeles/Sequim area on Saturday. Expect rain to continue for the rest of the lowlands all the way into Sunday morning, as we see rain transition to showers for the day on Sunday, we may see a few sunbreaks on Sunday as well. Highs for the weekend should range from 50-58.

The start of next week through mid-week looks very quiet as of now. On Monday we should see decreasing showers during the day with highs getting into the mid to upper 50s by then. Tuesday looks pleasant as of now with highs getting into the mid to upper 50s with partly cloudy skies, and a chance of AM fog.

The rest of next week as of now looks pretty quiet as we see pleasant conditions all the way through Friday possible, and highs climbing back into the 60s are also a possibility.

Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

Thanks for reading :)

Quiet Friday. Snow Still a Big Question for Weekend

Life in Bellingham is a nice place for snow fans the last week. They might get another shot of snow this weekend, nowhere as much as last week, but it looks like it could dump a good 2-4 inches to the area.

Friday looks pleasent with a slight chance of a shower throughout the day, other than that, Partly Sunny with highs in the low 50s.

Saturday is the day the cooler air will be flowing in, as it is scheduled to start flowing into the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. Temps on Saturday should range from the upper 30s north to the low 40s in Seattle. Temps will warm the more South you go.

Precipitation on Saturday will be limited, but few models show some precip in the area on Saturday, there could be a rain/snow mix from Everett, north during the day Saturday. We could see the rain snow line drop more south then expected, so stay tuned for that.

Sunday looks more interesting, as a warm front will clash with the cool air, but it looks like a mainly rain event from Everett southward, but remember, don't rule out the chance that temps can be colder then expected, so the Everett south could change to Lynnwood south or even Seattle south. It could also go more north, so Everett South could change to Mt. Vernon south in terms of rain.

Snow amounts on Sunday looks like a good 1-4 inches north of the rain/snow line, amounts due to change.

Next week we look to rebound with mild temps in the low to mid 50s, it looks like a wet week also with some rain on Monday and Tuesday.

Super Long Range models don't show much in terms of interesting, just low 50s with showers next week.

Stay with us to monitor the snow situation this weekend.

-Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

Quiet Next Two Days. Snow Chance for Weekend

We have had a very nice last two days with temperatures reaching the upper 50s in spots with mostly sunny skies. Tomorrow we should see temps cool down a bit with a slight chance of a P.M. Shower, highs ranging from 47-53. Friday should be a clone of Thursday, with highs in the low 50s with a chance of a shower.

This weekend looks very interesting right now. Models show cold air spilling out of the Frasier River Valley Friday night into Saturday. We should see high temps on Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 30s. The big question is, will we see any moisture?

Right now that question is still very up in the air. Some model runs of the GFS and the EURO show snow, while some runs don't show much moisture. As of Wednesday night, I would say a chance of snow for Western Washington for part of Saturday, and Sunday into Monday. Amounts are not in question right now, as we are still too far out.

Next week we look to bring back a mild and showery pattern, low to mid 50s for highs

I will continue to monitor this situation for the weekend, check back nightly for updates.

Grady. Western Washington Weather Blog

Mild tomorrow. Chilly Weekend

We actually received some sun today in most of the Puget Sound, with mild temperatures. Temps rose into the low to mid 50s in the afternoon, making it a great late winter day. Can we keep it going?

Tomorrow we should see even warmer temps, with mainly sunny skies, with a chance of increasing clouds later in the day, with high temps in the mid to upper 50s, maybe even reaching 60s in some spots. Mainly South if you want to feel that.

On Thursday we could see a slight chance of P.M. showers, mainly south. High temps on Thursday should range from 48 to 53. Friday looks almost similar, with highs getting in the low 50s with a chance of a shower, yesterday it looked like Friday would be warm and into the mid 50s again, but not anymore.

This weekend still looks like it's going to get cooler, but how cooler is the question. Some models show high temps getting into the upper 30s in some areas starting Saturday, with cold air staying over the weekend. The GFS model is the main model that shows this feature as of 9:00 P.M.Wednesday.

Snow? Doesn't look too likely right now, but we will see how this pattern develops. The model that showed a lot of snow for the Puget Sound last week, the UW-WRF model, shows about 6 inches in the Sound and 2 and a half FEET on the coast early next week, I will assure you there is a 99.9% chance that we will not see that much snow fall if we do get snow.

We will keep you updated on this situation during the coming days.

- Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

Dry Streak Ahead This Week. Mild Too

Is anyone else tired of the rain, when before they were tired of it being too dry with no exciting storms? I am!

Is anyone else tired of the news covering the snow in Bellingham? I am!

In the North Interior this weekend and today, we saw A LOT of snow, as me being from Snohomish, we were supposed to get 3-6 inches and got nothing, so I don't want to talk about snow. Last time, Bellingham northward has a chance to get an additional 1-3 inches of snow, or maybe just FREEZING RAIN, so have another fun snow day kids, well, that's what it looks like is going to happen.

This week is basically supposed to be the same for all of Western WA this week, besides tomorrow morning when Bellingham northward has to deal with some freezing rain and snow still around, this area should get into the mid 40s tomorrow. Snow should start to melt. We also may still see a few showers around the Sound tomorrow morning as well, nothing big though.

Tomorrow, should see temps rise into the low to mid 50s, besides the mentioned above Northern Interior with slightly cooler temps in the mid 40s. Wednesday looks warmer and dryer with temps ranging from about 50 to 57, and partly sunny skies, a beautiful February day.

Thursday afternoon we may see a little disturbance reach the area for a few P.M. showers, with highs ranging from 48 to 52.

On Friday, we look to have basically a clone of Wednesday, with Partly Sunny skies with temperatures ranging from 50 to 55, another nice February day, a very nice break this week from all the rain we have had recently.

This weekend, models are very mixed, the most accurate of all the models, one of the runs of the EURO model shows cold air returning with a chance of precip, which may bring snow back to WA. Also one of the GFS model brings cold air in, with limited precip. Only two models show this, so I'm not putting anything in the forecast yet, just mid to upper 40s for the weekend with a chance of a shower on Saturday.

Long Range models show dry weather, with cool temps all the way into the middle of next week.

12-16 days from now still looks pretty warm and dry, with temps in the upper 50s and low 60s, models still most likely going to change though.

- Grady, Western WA Weather Blog

Blog Change: Big Snow North; Mild Week Ahead

SW Snohomish County Weather is gone, I have now made this page all of Western Washington Weather, this post is right after the update at 11:30 P.M. Sunday Feb. 23rd 2014.

Quick Update: About Mt. Vernon north received a LOT of snow the last 24 hours, low totals amount to about 6-7 inches and highest totals ranging from a foot to a foot and a half in places.

Everywhere south of Mt. Vernon was basically left blank besides some wet snow Saturday morning for most folks, but nothing accumulated.

This was a major busted forecast for me, and the National Weather Service, predicting 3-6 inches of snow all the way south to about Lynnwood. That obviously didn't happen.

This week looks mild with temps in the low to mid 50s, with dry conditions Tuesday through Thursday evening, with some rain Thursday night. We should dry off for the weekend with temps in the low to mid 50s with a slight chance of a shower.

Super Long Range models show very warm temps in the low 60s about 12-16 days from now, something to keep an eye on.

- Grady, Western WA Weather Blog.

This Weekend May be a Snowy One - Warmer Next Week

We have not had much snow at all this winter, besides the two events that brought us snow in the night/early morning hours in late December and two weeks ago, both events brought us a couple inches of snow.

This weekend is looking very exciting still, but it's still not for sure just yet. For the Northern counties it's almost a guarantee, but for Snohomish County, it's still very up in the air, but I am putting it in the forecast now. Some models are showing lots of snow, the American (GFS) model shows almost 8 INCHES of snow in the Southwest Snohomish County area, but the European model (ECMWF) is showing less. That is why the forecast is still up in the air for now, we should have more info tomorrow evening.

Friday looks much like Thursday, a few showers, but a bigger chance of a sun break than Thursday. Cold air from Canada will invade the area tomorrow night into Saturday morning, dropping temperatures into the upper 20s and low 30s during that time. One more confusing thing that's still up in the air about this event is how much cold air we will get in our area, we just don't know yet, but I'm putting upper 30s for highs on Saturday, and low to mid 30s for Sunday.

Now that we went over the weekend event, let's talk about next week. Monday looks warmer and dryer as we start the new week, with highs in the mid to upper 40s, and partly cloudy skies, any snow that fell during Saturday and Sunday should melt Monday. Tuesday highs will bump into the upper 40s with more partly cloudy skies. Wednesday still looks warmer and dry, with highs in the low to mid 50s.

Beyond Wednesday looks to stay at about 50 degrees with showers Thursday and Friday.

I will most likely issue a Winter Storm Watch tomorrow night if models continue to show snow. As a snow fan, I hope this happens, hopefully even get a snow day on Monday, if this happens.

Thanks for reading :)
- Southwest Snohomish County Weather Blog

First Post: Extended Forecast Confusion for the Weekend.

I'm just going to keep this plain and simple, the forecast for the next two days is rather boring, just a chance of showers Thursday and Friday, but there is a possibility of some rain/snow Thursday night in the PSCZ (Puget Sound Convergence Zone) in North King and South Snohomish counties, I don't expect much accumulation if this occurs, maybe a dusting to a half inch, not likely though. Friday is much like Thursday, but without A.M. rain, just a chance of showers throughout the day, highs in the mid 40s. During the weekend is when things start to get tricky. There will be some showers throughout the day on Saturday, with a chance of some SNOW to the north, especially Snohomish County northward, I wouldn't get too excited yet, but it's something to keep an eye on. Other than that, highs in the upper 30s to low 40s is my best bet for Saturday, with a chance of a rain/snow shower. On Sunday, it looks really tricky, a front as of now (2/19/14) is expected to reach the Northern half of Western WA on Sunday (Snohomish County North.) It looks like this front will bring snow to the northern part of Western WA as of 2/19/14. If these model runs continue to show these features, I will change the five day, but for now, I'll leave it with upper 30s to low 40s with a chance of a rain or snow shower. Monday looks like it's going to warm up back into the mid 40s, with partial clearing during the day. Tuesday onward looks pretty good for dry and sun lovers as some models show Partly Cloudy skies with highs in the LOW to MID 50s. We will have to wait and see if models continue to show that, but for now, that's what it looks like.
Thanks for reading my first blog! I'm a 14 year old weather lover, so my writing might not be amazing, but I still enjoy doing this!
- Western Washington Weather Blog
:)