I am sooo happy I did.
This past winter was pretty disappointing for snow fans, even though we managed to get 4.0 inches of snow at Sea-Tac this year, it's still below average, and they were both over-running events.
For a kid and weather model run noob like me, this was my first experience of living through the models showing cold a lot during December and January and it not happening. I didn't know they didn't change that much, but I always had a slight feeling they did.
An El-Nino winter is in the forecast for next winter, but something exciting can still happen, the fall and winter of 06-07 was an El-Nino and we got a huge wind storm and a few good snows across the region.
If you just want to know why I can't wait, skip the story. It shows how I gained knowledge with weather models, and is a lot why I can't wait.
THE STORY
I remember my very first experience like it was yesterday, it was in late November of 2013.
I was already interested in weather a lot at this time, but it was my first time at actually looking at models and actually understand what they showed.
It was the Sunday before Thanksgiving week of November 2013, and as I am just on the internet I decide to check the latest GFS run. (I didn't know what the difference was between models at the time, so then I just said forecast model) The 18Z GFS showed cold air pouring into Washington from the Fraser River Valley at the beginning of December. It had temps in the negatives. (I had enough knowledge at that time to understand that would most likely not happen)
The next day the GFS still showed cold air coming into Western Washington, at this time, the GFS was the only model I knew, and I didn't know it was called the GFS.
As I was searching Seattle snow stuff up on Google, I find an article from a website I can't remember the name of now, but it brought up something that got me so excited I was about to tell everybody it was going to snow a week from that day.
It said that models showed what looked like models showed in December of 2008, they didn't show much moisture at first, then it started to look better and better as days went on.
The article also said that we could see a December to remember as cold and snow could stay through the first TWO WEEKS of the month, I almost lost it.
We got closer and closer to the week of December 2nd. I was extremely excited for the Saints @ Seahawks MNF game, and the cold supposed to come in on that day.
It was Friday November 30th, I check the weather channels 10 day forecast (Just for a tease) it showed highs that week in the mid to upper 20s, with a chance of snow later in the week. My eyes gazed at the eye candy that day.
As I had to work on a school project later that day, I kept twitter opened up as I awaited tweets that involved this possible snow event. So as I was typing for English, I was hyping for a big snow.
As that Monday (the arrival of the cold air) came closer, I was getting more, and less excited, as models weren't showing as much snow, but they still were.
Finally, my most anticipated day of the year comes. I still remember driving through the rain/snow mix with my dad in the convergence zone to get to the store for snacks for the MNF game.
The game started, my mind finally got taken off weather for the first time in the last week.
This picture below pretty much sums up the game
As that week was going, my disappointment grew, as models showed less time with the cold, and less moisture as well.
It was very cold though, as this picture from that last Sunday showed the forecast for that next week. That heavy snow on Monday didn't happen.
As we skip 4 days and head into Thursday, the coast gets a decent snow storm, dropping anywhere from 1-4 inches near the coast of Washington. Western Washington was left blank besides a couple of flurries.
As the week went on, snow chances were diminishing, as the cold reaches it's peak that Saturday night, as my brothers car said 9 DEGREES in Snohomish at about 9:00 PM.
It was Sunday night, the end of that very cold, and dry week. Models didn't show much in the way of snow, it showed warming temps and a chance of over running snow.
That over running snow never happened. I never got any snow during that event, just a rain snow mix.
WHAT I LEARNED
I learned so much from this event, almost all of my weather knowledge I have now came from this event, the biggest one being to never trust models past seven days out unless basically every run and model shows that feature.
I now have decent weather knowledge, and don't all myself a "noob" with this stuff anymore, but I know there is A LOT of stuff I don't know yet, and I can't wait to find out what's in store for my weather knowledge.
Why I can't wait for next fall/winter
I can't wait to have the same experience always checking the models every morning, day, and night. No matter what the models show, I will always be looking to see if there is any chance of snow in sight. Even during El-Nino.
It seems once a week in December and January show cold and snow the next week. Which is why I can't wait. Even though it usually never happens, it is still super fun to me to watch those models as the week goes on, every time before I check those models I hope "Please stick to the snow and cold!" I'm usually let down in terms of that, but this past winter, I've trained myself to not be too disappointed when it comes to that.
Special thanks to all my friends from school, family, and the people of twitter. Without @KSeattleweather @ScottSKOMO @MetPatrick22 @BMonahanKIRO7 @MorganPalmer @SamArgier and @cliffmass
I would be nowhere with my knowledge of weather where I am today.
Thanks everyone!
-Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog
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