Dry First Half of Week Ahead

We smashed the rain record at Sea-Tac for the month of March. The old record set back in 1950 of 8.40 inches of rain. March of 2014 has now beat that by more than an inch. At 9.44 inches, could we spare a dry day for the last day of the month?

Yes we will, in fact, we look dry Monday; Tuesday, Wednesday, and the first part or Thursday. 

Tonight we feature decreasing showers with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Monday looks Partly Cloudy with temps reaching the mid to upper 50s with a chance of a few spots hitting 60.

Tuesday looks mainly the same, Partly Cloudy with temps in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday looks the exact same as Tuesday, Partly Cloudy, temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday looks to be the day that change happens. We look dry in the AM, with increasing clouds and a chance of showers as the day goes on. Highs will be in the mid 50s.

Friday and Saturday look mainly cloudy, with rain showers likely for the end of the work week and the beginning of the weekend. Highs in the mid 50s.

Sunday looks a bit calmer, as we should dry out and will only see a few showers for the end of the weekend. Temps in the mid 50s once again.

Right now, early next week looks showery with temps in the mid to upper 50s. Not much change. 

The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook shows a pretty good chance of above normal temps, and a slight chance of above normal precipitation. We will see.

Have a good week!

-Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

Rain Set to Return to Western Washington

How would you mix the words June and March?

Junarch?

Marjune?

Anyways, we made it to 70 degrees in spots today, making late March feel like early June. Seattle made it to 66 today, while my area in Snohomish made it to a comfortable 72 with a nice calm breeze. 

Conditions tomorrow will make it seem as if today never happened, as we will see increasing rain during the morning, with highs only reaching the mid 50s with a few upper 50s. With unstable conditions, there is a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow and Wednesday. We could also see a few sunbreaks which could locally raise temperatures.

Continuing on Wednesday, we won't see steady rain, just rain showers with a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm, as mentioned above.

Thursday will deliver showers and sunbreaks with highs reaching the low to mid 50s, depending if you see sun.

Friday morning looks dry, but as we see hours go by, the chance of rain increases during the afternoon. We will see steady, moderate rain, from about noon Friday until early Saturday. Highs Friday and Suturday will be in the mid 50s.

The rest of Saturday will feature a few showers. Sunday looks like showers and sunbreaks with highs in the mid 50s again.

Opening day for the Mariners on Monday looks to be mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Long range models continue to show wet weather, but not heavy steady rain, just showers for now.

Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

Rainy Wednesday; Showers Thursday; Then Drying

Will we get more rain?

Yes.

Will we break the all time record for wettest March?

Most likely.

As of Tuesday Night, SeaTac Airport has received 7.69 inches of rain, the all time record is 8.40 inches. It looks like me may reach that record in the next week.

Wednesday, we should see some rain, not heavy rain like we saw the last few weeks, but breezy conditions, and numerous rain showers,with the highest chance of seeing the most rain will be in the Puget Sound Convergence Zone, mainly near Everett. Convergence Zone areas may also see some Thundershowers in the afternoon as well. High temps ranging from 47-52. Thursday we will see a few light rain showers, with temps cooling into the 40s for almost everyone, with highs ranging from 45-49.

Friday into the weekend, we look to dry out, and warm up, Friday will see clearing skies with high temps possibly getting into the mid 50s. A dirty ridge looks to build in, allowing some clouds and a very slight chance of a sprinkle on Saturday, but it should be mainly dry with temps ranging from 55-58. Sunday looks dry and partly cloudy, with temps possibly reaching the 60s southward and more inland. Monday looks to be the last day of dry and mild weather, as we look to see Partly Cloudy skies and temps possibly reaching the 60s in Seattle. Everywhere, temps look to range from 57-62 on Monday.

Tuesday looks to be the return of rain, with a system reaching the area and dropping light showers over Western Washington, with highs falling back into the mid 50s.

The rest of the week doesn't look too wet, but it looks like we could see a chance of showers everyday through the weekend. (See Outlooks)

Only 13 days until Mariner Baseball!

-Grady, Western WA Weather Blog.

Dry Weather Ahead

Today in Western Washington, we saw sun, and thunder showers. As of about 6:00 PM Monday, a convergence zone is starting to die down at around Tacoma. Which dragged South. It started in the  South Whidbey Island area.

There is still a slight chance of a shower to thunder shower tonight. With lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday should be dry. With highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s, Wednesday in the low 60s, and Thursday back in the upper 50s. Everyday should feature variable clouds, and a chance of AM fog.

At this time Friday looks mainly dry early in the day with an increasing chance of showers later in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 50s

This weekend looks wet again, but not very wet. Saturday looks like AM showers and a chance of PM clearing. Sunday looks like we will have increasing PM rain. Highs during the weekend will also be in the mid to upper 50s, with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Showers Sunday; Mainly Dry Work Week

We have been drenched by rain this week. We may finally reach the end of the very rainy weather after Sunday.

Everywhere in Western Washington saw rain today, besides the well known Olympic Rain Shadow. It blocked rain in the Sequim area. This area is usually dry when everybody else is wet due to the rain shadow.

Sunday should feature some rain around in the very early morning hours, which will switch to showers late in the morning. We may see an isolated thunderstorm as a cold front approaches with the left over showers. Highs should be in the range of 50-57.

Monday will also feature some showers with a chance of a isolated thunderstorm, but we should be mostly dry as showers decrease. Highs will cool off and be in the range of 47-53.

Tuesday is when we start to warm up and dry out, as we should see highs bump up into the upper 50s and low 60s with partly sunny skies.

Wednesday should be a clone of Tuesday, but highs will be warmer. In the range of 57-64. A very nice late winter day.

Thursday and Friday seem to look mainly dry as of now, but there could also be a shower in the mix with highs ranging from 53-60 both days. Next weekend looks wet as of now.

- Grady, Western a Washington Weather Blog

Why I Can't Wait for Next Fall/Winter

So I just got really invested into weather this past year...

I am sooo happy I did.

This past winter was pretty disappointing for snow fans, even though we managed to get 4.0 inches of snow at Sea-Tac this year, it's still below average, and they were both over-running events.

For a kid and weather model run noob like me, this was my first experience of living through the models showing cold a lot during December and January and it not happening. I didn't know they didn't change that much, but I always had a slight feeling they did.

An El-Nino winter is in the forecast for next winter, but something exciting can still happen, the fall and winter of 06-07 was an El-Nino and we got a huge wind storm and a few good snows across the region. 

If you just want to know why I can't wait, skip the story. It shows how I gained knowledge with weather models, and is a lot why I can't wait.



THE STORY

I remember my very first experience like it was yesterday, it was in late November of 2013.

I was already interested in weather a lot at this time, but it was my first time at actually looking at models and actually understand what they showed.

It was the Sunday before Thanksgiving week of November 2013, and as I am just on the internet I decide to check the latest GFS run. (I didn't know what the difference was between models at the time, so then I just said forecast model) The 18Z GFS showed cold air pouring into Washington from the Fraser River Valley at the beginning of December. It had temps in the negatives. (I had enough knowledge at that time to understand that would most likely not happen)

The next day the GFS still showed cold air coming into Western Washington, at this time, the GFS was the only model I knew, and I didn't know it was called the GFS. 

As I was searching Seattle snow stuff up on Google, I find an article from a website I can't remember the name of now, but it brought up something that got me so excited I was about to tell everybody it was going to snow a week from that day.

It said that models showed what looked like models showed in December of 2008, they didn't show much moisture at first, then it started to look better and better as days went on.

The article also said that we could see a December to remember as cold and snow could stay through the first TWO WEEKS of the month, I almost lost it.

We got closer and closer to the week of December 2nd. I was extremely excited for the Saints @ Seahawks MNF game, and the cold supposed to come in on that day.

It was Friday November 30th, I check the weather channels 10 day forecast (Just for a tease) it showed highs that week in the mid to upper 20s, with a chance of snow later in the week. My eyes gazed at the eye candy that day.

As I had to work on a school project later that day, I kept twitter opened up as I awaited tweets that involved this possible snow event. So as I was typing for English, I was hyping for a big snow.

As that Monday (the arrival of the cold air) came closer, I was getting more, and less excited, as models weren't showing as much snow, but they still were.

Finally, my most anticipated day of the year comes. I still remember driving through the rain/snow mix with my dad in the convergence zone to get to the store for snacks for the MNF game.

The game started, my mind finally got taken off weather for the first time in the last week.

This picture below pretty much sums up the game

The Seahawks beat the Saints 34-7 and then had the NFL's best record at 11-1.

As that week was going, my disappointment grew, as models showed less time with the cold, and less moisture as well.

It was very cold though, as this picture from that last Sunday showed the forecast for that next week. That heavy snow on Monday didn't happen.

As we skip 4 days and head into Thursday, the coast gets a decent snow storm, dropping anywhere from 1-4 inches near the coast of Washington. Western Washington was left blank besides a couple of flurries.

As the week went on, snow chances were diminishing, as the cold reaches it's peak that Saturday night, as my brothers car said 9 DEGREES in Snohomish at about 9:00 PM.

It was Sunday night, the end of that very cold, and dry week. Models didn't show much in the way of snow, it showed warming temps and a chance of over running snow.

That over running snow never happened. I never got any snow during that event, just a rain snow mix.

WHAT I LEARNED

I learned so much from this event, almost all of my weather knowledge I have now came from this event, the biggest one being to never trust models past seven days out unless basically every run and model shows that feature.

I now have decent weather knowledge, and don't all myself a "noob" with this stuff anymore, but I know there is A LOT of stuff I don't know yet, and I can't wait to find out what's in store for my weather knowledge.

Why I can't wait for next fall/winter

I can't wait to have the same experience always checking the models every morning, day, and night. No matter what the models show, I will always be looking to see if there is any chance of snow in sight. Even during El-Nino.

It seems once a week in December and January show cold and snow the next week. Which is why I can't wait. Even though it usually never happens, it is still super fun to me to watch those models as the week goes on, every time before I check those models I hope "Please stick to the snow and cold!" I'm usually let down in terms of that, but this past winter, I've trained myself to not be too disappointed when it comes to that.

Special thanks to all my friends from school, family, and the people of twitter. Without @KSeattleweather @ScottSKOMO @MetPatrick22 @BMonahanKIRO7 @MorganPalmer @SamArgier and @cliffmass  

I would be nowhere with my knowledge of weather where I am today.

Thanks everyone!

-Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

A Break In the Rain Tomorrow; Wet Weekend

Western Washington has been drenched by rain this week. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday featured drenching rains across Western Washington, we even passed the average monthly rainfall for the month of March of 3.72 inches, we are now at 3.79 inches for the month at Sea-Tac.

We will finally see a break in the rain Friday, as there is a break between systems in the Pacific. Temperatures Friday may reach the 60s in spots as we see some sun breaks. Temps will range from 52-62.

Saturday we will see a return to the rain as a front comes in from the North West during the late morning/early afternoon hours. We may see a rain shadow in the Port Angeles/Sequim area on Saturday. Expect rain to continue for the rest of the lowlands all the way into Sunday morning, as we see rain transition to showers for the day on Sunday, we may see a few sunbreaks on Sunday as well. Highs for the weekend should range from 50-58.

The start of next week through mid-week looks very quiet as of now. On Monday we should see decreasing showers during the day with highs getting into the mid to upper 50s by then. Tuesday looks pleasant as of now with highs getting into the mid to upper 50s with partly cloudy skies, and a chance of AM fog.

The rest of next week as of now looks pretty quiet as we see pleasant conditions all the way through Friday possible, and highs climbing back into the 60s are also a possibility.

Grady, Western Washington Weather Blog

Thanks for reading :)